Analysis of Santa Barbara Real Estate

Santa Barbara Real Estate for January through June’08 including Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito, Hope Ranch and Goleta (provided by G. Woods)

Looking at the Home Estate/PUD market for the greater Santa Barbara area from Carpinteria to Goleta including Montecito and Hope Ranch for the first 6 months of ’09 the numbers of sales finally rose into the high 70’s to low 80’s ranges which is about 20% above the numbers of sales in June ’08. Even more encouraging is the numbers of properties that entered escrows which was in the 90’s for the month of June ’09 compared to the low 80s’ for June ’08.

With the numbers of sales rising, the median sales price slid back for June to the mid $800,000s after rising each month since February. The median list price for homes entering escrow also is in the mid $800,000 range so that should be about where the median sales prices are going to stay for at least the short term future.

The sales price to original list price ratio rose in June to the high 80’s low 90’s after dipping down into the high 70’s for May. This means that prices are starting to stiffen particularly in that hot $600,000 to $800,000+ range.

After falling from April to May the inventory continued to decline in June. The median list price for the approximately 150 new listings that came on the market in June remains at about a $1.2 million median list price level with the overall inventory continuing at about a $1.85 million median list price level for the something like 625 available homes.

Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has almost exactly the same numbers of sales as we experienced in ’08 through the end of June and is even slightly ahead of last year’s pace but the median sales price has fallen by about 35% to approximately $645,000. In Montecito sales remain sluggish but are starting to climb closer to the ’08 level. The median sales price has fallen about $1.2 million from June ’08 however to the current number of about $2.35 million.

In the East of State St area sales are down about 5% from where they were in June ’08 and the median sales price has fallen about 24% to right around $900,000. Over on the West Side sales are slightly above where they were last year but the median sales price is down about 26% to the current level of approximately $735,000.

For Hope Ranch sales are about where they were last year with the median sales price residing currently at about $2.55 million approximately $30,000 above where it was through June ’08. For Goleta South despite declining inventory, sales are almost exactly where they were last year and even slightly ahead of the ’08 pace with the median sales price presently residing at about $715,00 which is only approximately $35,000 below where it was last year at this time. For Goleta North the lack of inventory has finally caught up with the area and the sales are down about 9% with the median sales price down by about 17% to the current number of roughly $700,000.

With the numbers of sales rising and the numbers of pending properties continuing to surge we’re going getting closer to the sales pace set during ’08. The median sales price should remain in the mid $800,000 range throughout the summer with perhaps a slight rise for the next couple of months. It is rumored that there were will be another round of foreclosures hitting the market in September which will affect the pricing structure and overall inventory but for the time being sales are moving forward and prices are stabilizing.

For the Condo market in the Santa Barbara area the flood gates finally opened for sales in June. The previous 2 months saw sales in the mid 20’s but for June the sales were in the 40’s. A lot of those pending listings that had been stacking up finally came into the Sold column in June and it looks like the party will continue because the numbers of condos going into escrow stayed in the 40’s range. But, while the numbers of sold condos rose, the median sales price for those condos slid back into the mid $400,000 level and it looks like that’s about the level we’ll stay at because the median list price of the condos entering escrow was also at the mid $400,000 level.

The sales price to original list price ratio slid back from the high 80’s in May to the mid 80’s for June which means that the sellers had to give back more than what they had in the previous month which is indicated by the fall in median sales price. The days on the market which is the time from when a property is listed until it goes into escrow went up in June to about 90 days from the mid 70’s in May indicating that buyers are taking a couple of more weeks to make up their mind before submitting an offer.

After falling the previous 5 months the inventory took a little upturn in June and the median list price for the overall inventory also slid up slightly to the mid $600,000s from the low $600,000s in May. The days on the market for the overall inventory remain at about 140 days or almost 5 months waiting for an acceptable offer.

Looking at the districts we see that there have been about 20% more sales of Condos in Carpinteria/Summerland than we saw in ’08 but the median sales price has dropped about 18% down to the current level of roughly $400,000. In Montecito we still only have 1 sale for all of ’09 with a sales price of $679,000 compared to ’08 when we had 9 sales with a median sales price of about $1.6 million.

On the East Side of Santa Barbara the numbers of sales is almost exactly where it was last year at this time but the median sales price has gone down about 30% to the current level of roughly $500,000. Over on the West Side the sales are up about 12% for ’09 with the median sales price falling about 6% to somewhere in the $525,000 range.

For Goleta South the level of sales is also almost exactly where it was last year but the median sales price has fallen precipitously by over 30% to the current level for $410,000. Finally in Goleta North the sales are ahead of where they were in ’08 after lagging most of the year but the median sales price has fallen by about 15% to the current level of $420,000.

Traditionally condo sales lead the way in the marketplace so the rise to the 40’s in numbers of sales for June is very good news. The condo buyer is usually more vulnerable to shifts in the money market so with the uptick in interest rates we will have to see whether this momentum can be maintained. For at least July and August we should continue to experience a surge in the condo market but if the rumored foreclosures do appear in September that prognosis could change.

For the time being both the Home Estate/PUD and Condo markets should continue to outperform what occurred in the previous year at this time. If this trend continues then the overall figures for ’09 will grow closer to numbers of sales posted in ’08 and even perhaps surpass those numbers. If the foreclosures do appear in September the numbers of sales could go up substantially and be ahead of the ’08 level but the median sales price would continue to trend downward.