Melissa Birch Real Estate

Statistics January-June 2008 vs. January-June 2009

2009-07-10T12:45:00.000-07:00

Active Listings

Total Active Listings:
2008 1,534
2009 1,582
UP +3.1%

New listings:
2008 947
2009 950
UP +.3%

New listings Median List Price:
2008 $1,289,000
2009 $1,289,000
EVEN

Properties that went into Escrow:
2008 414
2009 443
UP +7.0%

Sold Listings

Number of Sold Proeprties:
2008 388
2009 350
DOWN -10.1%

Median Sales Price:
2008 $1,150,000
2009 $ 846,100
DOWN -26.4%

Median Sales Price w/o Hope Ranch/Montecito:
2008 $925,000
2009 $750,000
DOWN -18.9%

Average Sold Price:
2008 $2,045,516
2009 $1,320,559
DOWN -35.4%

Average Sold Price w/o Hope Ranch/Montecito:
2008 $1,221,383
2009 $ 958,734
DOWN -21.5%

Sold Volume:
2008 $793,660,392
2009 $462,195,714
DOWN -41.8%

Analysis of Santa Barbara Real Estate

2009-07-08T12:26:00.000-07:00

Santa Barbara Real Estate for January through June’08 including Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito, Hope Ranch and Goleta (provided by G. Woods)

Looking at the Home Estate/PUD market for the greater Santa Barbara area from Carpinteria to Goleta including Montecito and Hope Ranch for the first 6 months of ’09 the numbers of sales finally rose into the high 70’s to low 80’s ranges which is about 20% above the numbers of sales in June ’08. Even more encouraging is the numbers of properties that entered escrows which was in the 90’s for the month of June ’09 compared to the low 80s’ for June ’08.

With the numbers of sales rising, the median sales price slid back for June to the mid $800,000s after rising each month since February. The median list price for homes entering escrow also is in the mid $800,000 range so that should be about where the median sales prices are going to stay for at least the short term future.

The sales price to original list price ratio rose in June to the high 80’s low 90’s after dipping down into the high 70’s for May. This means that prices are starting to stiffen particularly in that hot $600,000 to $800,000+ range.

After falling from April to May the inventory continued to decline in June. The median list price for the approximately 150 new listings that came on the market in June remains at about a $1.2 million median list price level with the overall inventory continuing at about a $1.85 million median list price level for the something like 625 available homes.

Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has almost exactly the same numbers of sales as we experienced in ’08 through the end of June and is even slightly ahead of last year’s pace but the median sales price has fallen by about 35% to approximately $645,000. In Montecito sales remain sluggish but are starting to climb closer to the ’08 level. The median sales price has fallen about $1.2 million from June ’08 however to the current number of about $2.35 million.

In the East of State St area sales are down about 5% from where they were in June ’08 and the median sales price has fallen about 24% to right around $900,000. Over on the West Side sales are slightly above where they were last year but the median sales price is down about 26% to the current level of approximately $735,000.

For Hope Ranch sales are about where they were last year with the median sales price residing currently at about $2.55 million approximately $30,000 above where it was through June ’08. For Goleta South despite declining inventory, sales are almost exactly where they were last year and even slightly ahead of the ’08 pace with the median sales price presently residing at about $715,00 which is only approximately $35,000 below where it was last year at this time. For Goleta North the lack of inventory has finally caught up with the area and the sales are down about 9% with the median sales price down by about 17% to the current number of roughly $700,000.

With the numbers of sales rising and the numbers of pending properties continuing to surge we’re going getting closer to the sales pace set during ’08. The median sales price should remain in the mid $800,000 range throughout the summer with perhaps a slight rise for the next couple of months. It is rumored that there were will be another round of foreclosures hitting the market in September which will affect the pricing structure and overall inventory but for the time being sales are moving forward and prices are stabilizing.

For the Condo market in the Santa Barbara area the flood gates finally opened for sales in June. The previous 2 months saw sales in the mid 20’s but for June the sales were in the 40’s. A lot of those pending listings that had been stacking up finally came into the Sold column in June and it looks like the party will continue because the numbers of condos going into escrow stayed in the 40’s range. But, while the numbers of sold condos rose, the median sales price for those condos slid back into the mid $400,000 level and it looks like that’s about the level we’ll stay at because the median list price of the condos entering escrow was also at the mid $400,000 level.

The sales price to original list price ratio slid back from the high 80’s in May to the mid 80’s for June which means that the sellers had to give back more than what they had in the previous month which is indicated by the fall in median sales price. The days on the market which is the time from when a property is listed until it goes into escrow went up in June to about 90 days from the mid 70’s in May indicating that buyers are taking a couple of more weeks to make up their mind before submitting an offer.

After falling the previous 5 months the inventory took a little upturn in June and the median list price for the overall inventory also slid up slightly to the mid $600,000s from the low $600,000s in May. The days on the market for the overall inventory remain at about 140 days or almost 5 months waiting for an acceptable offer.

Looking at the districts we see that there have been about 20% more sales of Condos in Carpinteria/Summerland than we saw in ’08 but the median sales price has dropped about 18% down to the current level of roughly $400,000. In Montecito we still only have 1 sale for all of ’09 with a sales price of $679,000 compared to ’08 when we had 9 sales with a median sales price of about $1.6 million.

On the East Side of Santa Barbara the numbers of sales is almost exactly where it was last year at this time but the median sales price has gone down about 30% to the current level of roughly $500,000. Over on the West Side the sales are up about 12% for ’09 with the median sales price falling about 6% to somewhere in the $525,000 range.

For Goleta South the level of sales is also almost exactly where it was last year but the median sales price has fallen precipitously by over 30% to the current level for $410,000. Finally in Goleta North the sales are ahead of where they were in ’08 after lagging most of the year but the median sales price has fallen by about 15% to the current level of $420,000.

Traditionally condo sales lead the way in the marketplace so the rise to the 40’s in numbers of sales for June is very good news. The condo buyer is usually more vulnerable to shifts in the money market so with the uptick in interest rates we will have to see whether this momentum can be maintained. For at least July and August we should continue to experience a surge in the condo market but if the rumored foreclosures do appear in September that prognosis could change.

For the time being both the Home Estate/PUD and Condo markets should continue to outperform what occurred in the previous year at this time. If this trend continues then the overall figures for ’09 will grow closer to numbers of sales posted in ’08 and even perhaps surpass those numbers. If the foreclosures do appear in September the numbers of sales could go up substantially and be ahead of the ’08 level but the median sales price would continue to trend downward.

Statistics June 2009, Part 1 Comparing 2005-2009, Part 2 Comparing 2008-2009

2009-06-19T10:40:00.000-07:00

Santa Barbara Home/Planned Unit Development Statistics:
Part 1-Comparing 2005-2009

Median Sales Price Jan-May:
Yr 2005 $1,222,000
Yr 2009 $ 846,100

Sales Jan-May:
Yr 2005 437
Yr 2009 266

Sales Pending Jan-May:
Yr 2005 520
Yr 2009 359

Escrow Fall Throughs, % of all homes Jan-May:
Yr 2005 31 6%
Yr 2009 53 14.7%

New Listings Jan-May:
Yr 2005 718
Yr 2009 795

Part 2-Comparing 2008-2009

Total Active Listings Jan-May:
Yr 2008 1,343
Yr 2009 1,421

UP +5.8%

New listings Jan-May:
Yr 2008 764
Yr 2009 795

UP +4.1%

New listings Median Sales Price Jan-May:
Yr 2008 $1,299,000
Yr 2009 $1,299,000

EVEN +0.0%

Properties that went into Escrow Jan-May:
Yr 2008 347
Yr 2009 359

UP +3.5%

Number of Sold Properties Jan-May:
Yr 2008 315
Yr 2009 266

DOWN -15.6%

Median Sales Prices Jan-May:
Yr 2008 $1,195,000
Yr 2009 $ 846,100

DOWN -29.2%

Median Sales Prices w/o Hope Ranch/Montecito Jan-May:
Yr 2008 $925,000
Yr 2009 $767,000

DOWN -17.1%

Average Sold Price Jan-May:
Yr 2008 $2,188,462
Yr 2009 $1,352,280

DOWN -38.2%

Average Sold Price w/o Hope Ranch/Montecito Jan-May:
Yr 2008 $1,241,951
Yr 2009 $ 974,517

DOWN -21.5%

Sold Volume Jan-May:
Yr 2008 $689,365,571
Yr 2009 $359,706,564

DOWN -47.8%

Current Santa Barbara Statistics & Survey-how buyers search for open houses

2009-06-10T10:44:00.000-07:00

From January-May 2009 the Median Sales Price for Santa Barbara is $846,100. This is down 32% from the height of of the median sales price of $1,250,000, back in 2007.
Currently there are 626 homes/PUDs on the market. The inventory is at its highest level and the Buyers at the lowest level.
Basic economics of supply and demand: High Inventory with few Buyers=Buyer's Market

Where are Buyer's searching for properties open to view?
According to Realtor Magazine-online
January 3, 2009
More than 90% of potential home buyers plan to attend open houses as they look for a home to buy, according to a survey conducted by Trulia.com

62% use online sites to find open houses
53% use information provided to them by real estate professionals
36% use neighborhood signs
31% use information in the newspaper or other printed source

Statistics for February 2009

2009-03-17T14:29:00.000-07:00

Stats for Goleta, SB, Summerland, Carp.

48 homes sold in February, 30 of those sold were below $1M
$720,000, Median Sales Price
85% sales price from original listed price

Sales Prices equivalent to late 2003-2004

Highest sale in February $3,850,000 (Bella Vista, Montecito)
Lowest sale in February, $200,000 (home on leased land off Painted Cave)

Escrow fall-through, up, ~30%
Median Sales Price down -33.9%
Average Sold Price down -52.9%
Average Sold Price (without Montecito and Hope Ranch) down -32.8%

Average Sales Price in Montecito, down 52% (lack of higher end sales)
2008 $5,647,000
2009 $2,670,000
Average Sales Price in Hope Ranch, down 28%
2008 $3,288,000
2009 $2,360,000

December Cort Report, Sales for Santa Barbara

2009-02-03T20:17:00.000-08:00

Cort Report for December 1-31st, 2008

Carpinteria Sales

19 sales

Sales Price Range: $100,000-$7,290,000

Average Sales Price: $525,588.24

Goleta Sales

17 sales

Sales Price Range: $$211,000-$770,000

Average Sales Price: $525,588.24

Hope Ranch Sales

2 sales

Sales Price Range: $3,194,545-$5,900,000

Average Sales Price: $4,547,272.73

Isla Vista Sales

2 sales

Sales Price Range: $1,335,000-$1.455,000

Average Sales Price: $1,395,000

Montecito Sales

13 sales

Sales Price Range: $1,145,000-$10,600,000

Average Sales Price: $4,216,923,08

Santa Barbara Sales

52 sales

Sales Price Range: $50,000-$3,190,000

Average Sales Price: $976,019.23

Habitat Breaks Ground! & November CORT Report

2008-12-10T17:56:00.000-08:00

Today, Habitat for Humanity had their ceremonial groundbreaking for the upcoming San Pascual Housing Project. It was a wonderful event where everyone was invited to meet the community members involved, as well as meet the 4 families who will live in the housing project. At this time, Habitat has reached 44% of the campaign goal, and recently closed escrow at the housing project site, located at 618 San Pascual Street. During today's program, Mayor Marty Blum and First District Supervisor Salud Carbajal, expressed their enthusiasm for the project, and for the organizations impact in our community. Mayor Blum encouraged everyone to visit the ReStore, and to join her with a hammer when construction begins.

The November CORT report is outlined below.

November Sales-South County by area.

1. Carpinteria 7 sales: Average sales price $1,711,426.57

Range ($250K-$6.5M)

2. Goleta 21 sales: Average sales price $668,523.81

Range ($285K-$2.3M)

3. Hope Ranch 1 sale: price $2.7M

4. Montecito 11 sales: Average sales price: $2,266,772.73

Range ($1.2M-4.2M)

5. Santa Barbara 34 sales: Average sales price $931,235.29

Range ($331,500-$3.6M)

6. Summerland 3 sales: Average sales price $1,107,166.67

Range ($454,500-$1.795M)

Sotheby's Contributes to Conservation International, $800 Billion Dollar Buy Out, Foreclosures Suspended

2008-12-03T20:47:00.000-08:00

Sotheby's International Realty has announced a comprehensive program to protect tropical forest land worldwide through a company-wide support of Conservation International (CI), a global conservation leader operating in 40 countries.

Sotheby's International Realty is encouraging its agents, staff and customers to take action by participating in the program, which supports CI's "Lost There Felt Here" campaign to protect tropical forests. Already the company has given an up-front donation to protect over 4,500 acrse of endangered rainforest. In 2009 the will match each acreage donation made, until a combined total of at least 8,500 acres is reached. To learn more about CI visit: www.conservation.org

***This will be an organization that I will be contributing to, as well as our local Habitat for Humanity at the close of every escrow.

An article from MSNBC.com, "U.S. moves to thaw credit for consumers" (quick synopsis)

The government unveiled two new programs Tuesday that will provide $800 billion to try to help unfreeze the market for consumer debt from home mortgages and credit cards.

The announcements by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department represented the latest modifications to the largest government bailout in history. The program on consumer debt will lend up to $200 billion to the holders of securities backed by various types of consumer loans. It will be supported by a $20 billion of credit protection from the $700 billion bailout package that was enacted last month. In a promising sign that homeowner's rates could tumble, rates on Fannie Mae and Fredie Mac debt fell Tuesday after Paulson announced the new plan.

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosure sales until January 2009 (NAR Newsline)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently announced that they will postpone foreclosure sales and evictions on occupied single-family residences scheduled to occur between Nov. 26, 2008-Jan. 9, 2009.

During this time, the two mortgage companies will streamline their modification programs, scheduled to launch Dec. 15th. Foreclosure attorneys and loan servicers will continue to contact borrowers who have defaulted on their mortgage loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and continue to pursue workout options.

Pocket Listings, Food Bank and Lending News

2008-11-25T12:49:00.000-08:00

Pocket listings: (call me for details or to set up a showing)

4 bedroom completely remodeled on the Mesa, 2 blocks from the Shoreline Park, Washington Elementary, price $1,565,000.

Downtown craftsman. 2 bed/1 bath on Upper East in Peabody School, updated and freshly painted, price $750,000.

Food Bank:

Sotheby's International Realty is participating with the Food Bank to feed our local Santa Barbara community. The demand for Foodbank services has increased by 25-30% this year. We have bins at each Sotheby's office if you would like to donate canned goods. One their website they have a list of nutritious items that they need. Please visit: http://www.foodbanksbc.org/ for donation information and programs provided.

Lending News:

Arick Fuller. a mortgage broker with First Capital provided the following update today:

The conforming loan rate for Santa Barbara will be set to a maximum of $603,000, starting next week. That has been lowered from our current conforming rate of $729,500, but is significantly higher than the conforming rate of $419,000, back in 2005. Rates are under 6% for owner occupied, and are at ~6% for non-owner occupied, a possible point may be paid. Full docs are needed. Take out the guess work on what you may qualify for. Call your lender and get your pre-approval.

Clothing for Tea Fire Victims, Sotheby's home website and Property Taxes

2008-11-24T08:58:00.000-08:00

A local clothing store, Horny Toad, is offering free clothes to the Tea Fire Victims. They have many sizes for men and woman. All clothes are new.

When: Nov.24-Nov. 26 from 12-4

Location: 15 W. Mason St., Santa Barbara

Time: 12-4 pm

Sotheby's International Realty continues to provide the most extensive coverage of our listed properties.

Statistics show that 74% of all home buyers and sellers search the web for their real estate needs. Just for the month of October, 202 countries and 6 continents visited www.sothebyshomes.com, 207,005 pages were viewed, and 38,422 viewed were of Santa Barbara properties alone.

Property Taxes are coming up! I love to share good news, so why am I enthusiastically writing about property taxes? If you have purchased a home since 2005, your property value may have decreased (at least according to the County records).

Recently, my clients who I worked with on the sale of their property and purchase of their current home, both of which happened in 2005, asked if I would help them with their tax re-assessment. I completed the County Tax Assessor's form, by providing current comparable sales, and detailed information on the properties. With just a few hours of time, I was able to get their property taxes reduced from, $18,000 per year, to $14,000 per year.

If you are interested in seeing if your property taxes can be reduced, give me a call, and we can discuss your particular property. This is a service I will provide, whether I was or was not involved with your home purchase, so don't hesitate to see if I can be of assistance.

Re-Store in Santa Barbara

2008-11-22T14:21:00.000-08:00

If you have had coffee with me recently, you may have heard me discuss my involvement with Habitat for Humanity. Habitat for Humanity one of the local charities that I am involved with. I am currently on the Community Gifts committee, with our focus on the upcoming San Pascual project. This housing project will break ground next year and will become a first home for 4 local families.

I recently visited The ReStore which is run by Habitat. It opened in August, and is located on Hollister Ave. It is currently open 3 days per week, but may expand its hours in the coming months. The store carries new and used cabinets, ovens, doors, lights and so on. They have many sought after items very reasonably priced. When I was there, they had a newer Thermador double oven for $250.00. If you are remodeling and would like to donate your items, this may be exactly what your looking for. Or, if you are in need of the items listed above, this is a "green" way to shop. 100% of the proceeds from Re-Store go directly to Habitat's local Southern Santa Barbara County projects.

On Sunday I have an open house at 316 Peach Grove Lane located in the Hope School District, from 1-3, listed for $899,000. www.316PeachGrove.com

Best Buy, Tip and Foreclosures

2008-11-21T17:57:00.000-08:00

Best Buy: 3322 Calle Noguera, in San Roque. Currently listed with Sotheby's for $1,325,000. It is a 4 bedroom, roughly 2200 sq ft with a pool on 1/3 acre. A buyer must have vision to see past the renters decor and clutter. This home is the Peabody School district (where my son goes and it exceeds my expectations).

Window cleaning tip: I spent $250 for a window cleaning service. The service men showed up in a small truck and brought two buckets and some rags. While they cleaned, I looked for the special supplies. After many inquiries I then found out the trick is simply good elbow grease. Since then, I have cut back on the Windex and just rubbed a bit more, and the results have been that the windows look just as good as a professional service.

Many have asked,"How are foreclosures being handled?" If I was asked that question 3 months ago I would have said, "I am learning the process, and I normally do not negotiate with the bank directly." Since then, I have written eight offers, and now I can officially comment, "Every foreclosure is handled differently." A few examples: An offer that I wrote over 2 months ago is still being reviewed by the bank. There were 7 offers on the property and since then every buyer has walked, including mine. On another property, my offer to the bank was responded to by the bank with a Counter Offer within 24 hours from submittal. My clients were stunned as they expected a response in 2009.

For foreclosures, the best suggestion is to write a clean offer and include a pre-approval letter. Have your agent keep in constant communication with the other agent and bank negotiator. Often without a negotiator the process is not resolved in a timely manner.

I am off to have dinner with my family and get a good night sleep. I will be at my Cota Street Studios tomorrow morning from 9:30-11:30. We are a 1/2 block from the Farmer's Market. If you are downtown, please stop by and see one of the most photographed and published buildings in Santa Barbara. For information on the studios, (I currently have 1 for sale and 1 for lease,) please visit: www.225ECotaSt.com

Happy Friday,

Melissa

Real Estate, What Else?

2008-11-20T17:57:00.000-08:00

Well I figured it was time to write my first blog. As we know I love to talk and I have been at Sotheby's for over 7 years so there must be information to share. This is a great day for me as well, Kevin and I are celebrating our 9 year wedding anniversary today!

I am constantly searching for best Buys, often involved in challenging escrows, and continue to enjoy my relationships with local experts in their fields (land-use planners, insurance agents, architects, contractors, lenders). I do hope to pass on real estate related information that may be of interest.

These past months with the fires, economic whoas, and so on, I have been asked, "What Now?" Well as for that all I can say is that we seem to be in unchartered territory. But one item that I am sure we need to address is insurance. We all need to know our insurance plan. Unless you are versed in "gibberish" you may just want to call your agent. I love my insurance agent and would be happy to forward you his info. Many of the fire evacuees of the Tea Fire were underinsured and wish they had increased their coverage over the past years. If you are renting or own, please note that I was given 3 incredible tips this week.

1. Check with your agent that you have adequate coverage for your personal property and that you also add additional upgrades if possible, examples: double paned windows, land grading and retrofitting for today's building requirements, just to name a few.

2. If you have to evacuate and you own a pool, throw everything into it. Yes, that's right, even photos. This is of course if you only have a few minutes. Even a fireproof safe can incinerate with the high heat, but your grandmother's china and family passports will be at the bottom of the pool when you return.

3. Video tape your house. The trick to this one is in the detail. Take an hour and go through your entire house with your video camera and record every room and every drawer and give an estimated price for everything down to the towels. That way if any disaster occurs you have record of it. Don't forget to take that tape to a bank safety deposit box or another location.

There are many articles on mortgages, stats on sales and great buys that I will be passing on to you in following posts.

If you haven't had a chance to view my website please take time to visit: www.melissabirch.com

I look forward to sharing.

Cheers,

Melissa

Melissa Birch

Sotheby's International Realty

805-689-2674

www.melissabirch.com

melissa.birch@sothebysrealty.com